According to the Workers' Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau (WCIRB), the predicted changes in workers' compensation claims gravity and occurrences will be small in California because of its industry variation in employment.
Also stated in the update, employment in most industries recovered from the pandemic related changes by the end of the year 2022.
Employment in hospitality recovered in 2023. Retail employment is expected to stay below 2019 levels until 2026. Construction employment is expected to have moderate growth in 2024 and 2025. Then, it's expected to slow down in 2026.
The overall growth should be on a par with the slower than moderate growth in construction anticipated for 2026. Overall, wages are expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, but less, at a lower level of increase.
Unemployment should go modestly up and then modestly down in 2024. Overall, they should remain at low levels, the report indicates.
Increases in unemployment go with decreases in indemnity claim numbers. With the forecast of unemployment rates small, there comes a small impact on changes in indemnity claims frequencies.
Claims frequency substantially went up in 2021 because of the mixture of industry employment. The increase was driven mostly by the comeback of hospitality employment. Modest industry variation impacts on claims numbers and seriousness are expected to continue and offset one another.
According to the WCIRB this will yield an insignificant impact on pure premium through the year 2026 .
Lonce Lamonte
journalist
lonce@adjustercom.com
www.adjustercom.com
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